A lei dos grandes números e a falácia do jogador em um modelo probabilístico para a Mega-Sena

Abstract

Gambling has been present in everyday life for thousands of years. In Brazil, Mega-Sena is the biggest game of chance in the lottery mode. To quantify how likely a victory at the Mega-Sena is, probabilistic models can be used. This work is based on a model proposed in the literature to discuss the Weak Law of Large Numbers and the Gambler's Fallacy. The objective is to explain some beliefs without mathematical basis of the bettors and to highlight the impossibility of predicting results.