AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL APPLIED TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL APPLIED TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

Authors

  • Severino da Siva UFCG
  • Jefferson Bezerra UEPB
  • Aldo Lourêdo UEPB
  • Adriano Batista

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34179/revisem.v7i2.16537

Abstract

In this work, we adapt the well-known and tested epidemiological compartmental model SIR developed
by Kermack and McKendrick (1927) to model the dissemination dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil, in the states of Paraíba and Sergipe and in the cities of Campina Grande-PB, Aracaju-SE and in Itabaiana-SE. We validate our epidemiological model by comparing the official data of confirmed, and deaths due to the pandemics. We obtained very good fits by allowing a time variation in the rate of contagion, what reflects a lower or higher adherence to social distancing by the involved populations.

Keywords: epidemiological model; COVID-19.

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Published

2022-08-09

How to Cite

da Siva, S., Bezerra, J. ., Lourêdo, A., & Batista, A. (2022). AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL APPLIED TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19. Revista Sergipana De Matemática E Educação Matemática, 7(2), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.34179/revisem.v7i2.16537

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2022): Revista Sergipana de Matemática e Educação Matemática

Section

Mathematics

License

Creative Commons License

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