UM MODELO EPIDEMIOLÓGICO APLICADO À DISSEMINAÇÃO DA COVID-19

Abstract

In this work, we adapt the well-known and tested epidemiological compartmental model SIR developed
by Kermack and McKendrick (1927) to model the dissemination dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil, in the states of Paraíba and Sergipe and in the cities of Campina Grande-PB, Aracaju-SE and in Itabaiana-SE. We validate our epidemiological model by comparing the official data of confirmed, and deaths due to the pandemics. We obtained very good fits by allowing a time variation in the rate of contagion, what reflects a lower or higher adherence to social distancing by the involved populations.

Keywords: epidemiological model; COVID-19.