MODELAGEM MATEMÁTICA DA EVOLUÇÃO DA PANDEMIA DE COVID-19 NO BRASIL

Abstract

In March 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 a global pandemic. Decision-making by authorities in times of health crisis, such as the one caused by COVID-19, requires actions in an attempt to restrict contact between infected and susceptible individuals in order to interrupt or reduce the contagion cycle, however, with attention the impacts of these measures on affected societies, mainly in the productive and education sectors. Mathematical modeling with epidemiology models allows simulations of different scenarios, constituting for the tools that can help managers in decision-making, allowing a more balanced and informed analysis of the possible impacts of their decisions on the epidemic. In this work, an adaptation of the SIR and SIRS models was made, which describe the dynamics between susceptible, infected and removed individuals, in order to simulate the development of the pandemic in Brazil. When solving the inverse problem functions were adjusted to model the transmission and lethality rates according to the adapted model, having as a comparison parameter the official data of cases and deaths made available by the Health Ministry. One of the adaptations made to the model allows considering the population immunization effects. The analysis of these effects is one of the most expressive results observed in the simulations, suggesting that with its advance, it was possible to relax rules of social isolation with the resumption of economic, social and educational activities, without a significant resumption of contagion curves growth and, mainly, of deaths, within the analyzed period.