Multicriteria approach to financial risk analysis in an innovative software development project at Porto Digital in Pernambuco

Resumen

The article aims to evaluate the critical risk factors that have a financial impact on an innovative software development project carried out by a small Porto Digital company in Pernambuco. To develop this research, it used an integrated methodology composed of three steps, namely: (i) use of the Non-traditional Capital Investment Criteria (NCIC) multicriteria method for quantification and hierarchy of risk factors; (ii) use of the risk matrix to classify risk factors; and (iii) the Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the project's aggregate net present value based on the risk factors studied. The results revealed three risk classes in the project, class A (++) composed of risk factors associated with external actions, schedule compliance, requirements failures, unavailability of labor and management, and execution failures, which, in isolation, have a low potential for financial loss. Class A (+) is composed of the risk of unavailability of financial resources in the project, and, finally, class B, the most severe, is composed of the risk factor related to planning failures, especially the selling force of the proposed innovation. This had a loss power of 49.2% of the project's NPV and an aggregate NPV disturbing power of about 95%. In addition, it was found that, together, the risk factors studied have the power to make the project financially unviable, as a negative average NPV_A was identified, with a probability of 67.044% remaining in this condition.